What’s in the article?
An analysis of the U.S. Census Data.
Key Finding: Older Millennials are the largest youth demographic in the United States. With the U.S. high school population in decline, expect more of older U.S. millennials in the near future.
Who Exactly is a Millennial?
Do a Google search for the term Millennials.
You are most likely to get the Wikipedia page for Generation Y as the top result followed by news articles on the most recent studies on Millennials.
Some of these studies attack Millennials with labels such as lazy,narcissistic and entitled. Others are more sympathetic in pointing out their difficulties in coping with a failing economy.
Despite the media hype around Millennials, little do we know about where the word ‘Millennial’ came from, the size of the Millennial population & how this population is changing.
Where did the term ‘Millennial’ come from?
The term ‘Millennial’ was first used in 1991 by Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe in their book Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069. In 2000, they released an entire book devoted to Millennials, titled Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation.
For their purposes, Strauss and Howe used 1982 as the starting birth year for Millennials and 2004 as the final birth year making anyone aged 9-31 in 2013 a Millennial.
Since then several studies have tweaked the age group as it suited their purpose.
The exact age group of the Millennial Generation is still up for debate among youth researchers (example 1 & example 2).
But let’s follow the definition set by the people who named the generation. So anyone aged 10-29 (as of 2013) would be a Millennial.
How many Millennials are there in the United States?
According to the latest U.S. Census bureau data, there are 86 million Millennials – young people between the ages of 10 and 29 – in the US today. That’s 68% of people under 30 in the US are Millennials.
Let’s divide them up by educational life stages:
- Middle School: 10-13 year olds
- High School: 14-17 year olds
- Undergraduates: 18-22 year olds
- Graduates/Professionals: 23-29 year olds
You can see how they stack up in the chart below.
Image may be NSFW.
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Obviously not everyone follows the above life stage progression. There are people above 30 enrolled in undergraduate courses and several youth who drop out of high school.
The categorization by life stages is for research purposes only.
What’s the future of the U.S. Millennial Population?
If current birth rates & death rates are to continue, the U.S. youth population will skew heavily towards older Millennials in the near future.
Already 61% of the Millennial population is 18 or above i.e. beyond High School.
In fact the High School population i.e. 14-17 year old group, has decreased for 2 consecutive years.
Image may be NSFW.
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A more detailed analysis of the U.S. Millenial Population
What does this mean?
The biggest concern that comes to my mind is employment.
Youth employment has always been a critical issue in the United States. According to a recent study, 15% of youth aged 16-24 are out of school & out of work.
Youth advocates need programs not only to get young people to stay in school but also to transition them into a working life.
Other than employment Millennials will now be dealing with parenting.
Another big issue Millennials will need help is personal finance – mortgages, investments & college loans.
Finally, as the current Millennial generation ages into adulthood, a new generation is being ushered in.
This new generation is currently 40.5 million in size and still lacking a media worthy label.
Whatever it gets called, let’s hope that youth research (and the media) cuts back on demonizing them for new behavior & trends.
Reference
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Release Date: June 2013